T20 World Cup 2024 semi-final scenarios: What do India, Afghanistan and Australia need to qualify?

Afghanistan stunned Australia today to ensure that all the teams in Group 1 of Super 8 have a chance to qualify for the semi-finals of the ongoing T20 World Cup 2024. 

Here is a look at the semi-final qualification scenarios for India, Afghanistan, Australia and Bangladesh. 

Group 1 remaining fixtures

24 June: Australia v India, Gros Islet, St Lucia (7:30 PM PST)

25 June: Afghanistan v Bangladesh, Arnos Vale, St Vincent (5:30 AM PST)

India scenario

For India, the scenario is pretty straightforward. They need to beat Australia in order to qualify for the semi-finals. A loss against the Aussies would not be a big problem, provided it is not by a big margin. India currently has a net-run rate of 2.43. If they lose big, there is a possibility that they might be knocked out before semis since Australia and Afghanistan can go through, instead of India, on net run-rate.

Australia scenario

The Aussies are in a tight spot at the moment after the loss to Afghanistan. They will now need to beat India and will also need a favour from Bangladesh and hope they will defeat Afghanistan during their match.

Australia's current net run-rate is 0.223. Even if they lose against India, help from Bangladesh will still be needed.

Afghanistan scenario

Afghanistan will need a win over Bangladesh and hope for a favour from India to secure spot in the semi-final. If they lose against Bangladesh, then Afghanistan will need India to beat Australia by a big margin so that they can go past the -0.65 net run-rate they have at the moment. If Australia win, Afghanistan will have to hope they beat Bangladesh by a big margin and India-Australia play a close match.

Bangladesh scenario

Bangladesh need a miracle to qualify with their -2.4 net run-rate, but mathematically, they still have a chance. They will need to overpower Afghanistan by a big margin and hope India thump Australia as well in the other match.

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