The numbers game: How can Pakistan make it to World Cup semi-finals?

Here are the scenarios that can result in Pakistan making it to the top four

By Web Desk
June 23, 2019
Making up scenarios, the comparison to the 1992 World Cup, and how the other teams will fare so that our team can make it to the next stage is all part of being a Pakistani fan

Once again, we are at the crossroads where we are crunching the numbers and figuring out how the men in green can make it to the next round of the tournament.

Of course, making up scenarios, the comparison to the 1992 World Cup, and how the other teams will fare so that our team can make it to the next stage is all part of being a Pakistani fan.

So how does the Pakistani team make it to the next round of the tournament?

For starters, here’s a look at how the tournament has turned out so far.

Underdogs Afghanistan are out of the tournament along with South Africa, which means any of the eight remain in contention for a spot in the World Cup.

New Zealand, Australia, England, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and West Indies still have three matches to play apart from India and Pakistan which have four games to play for a place in the semi-finals.

For Pakistan to make it to the final four, they need to win their next four games. Losing even one of the games means Pakistan will be out of the tournament.

Winning our next four games that are against South Africa, New Zealand, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will take our points tally from three to 11.

Pakistan sit at nine on the ICC Cricket World Cup points table. Photo: ICC

But that’s not all. Winning all four matches is not enough.

Sri Lanka need to lose at least one of their next three matches. The Islanders next play South Africa, West Indies and India. If they manage to win even two games, their points tally will go from six to 10.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, need to lose at least one of their next three matches which are against Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. Even if Bangladesh wins two of its next three matches with one of them being against us, the Tigers will go from five points to nine.

Here’s a comprehensive look at how Pakistan can make it to the semi-finals round:

• Scenario 1

England lose two of their next three matches.

If hosts and World Cup favourites England end up losing two of their next three matches, Pakistan can have a chance to make it into the semi-final.

Next stop for England, Australia, India and New Zealand.

In the likely scenario England lose two out of three matches, they move from eight points to 10.

• Scenario 2

Five-time champions Australia lose all of their next three matches against England, New Zealand and South Africa; they will remain on 10 points, thus giving Pakistan a chance to proceed into the next round.

• Scenario 3

If two-time champions India lose their remaining four matches against West Indies, England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, they will remain on nine points, giving the green shirts a chance to play in the semi-final round of the tournament.

• Scenario 4

If India manages to lose any three of their next four matches against West Indies, England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, they will move from nine to 11 points.

This, however, will tie India and Pakistan on 11 points each. The Net Run rate (NRR) will come into play as Pakistan can only go through if they are able to win their remaining four matches by huge run rates.

• Scenario 5

If table-toppers New Zealand lose all three of their remaining matches against Pakistan, England and Australia, they will remain on 11 points, with both the Kiwis and Pakistan tied on the same points.

NRR will come into play with Pakistan needing to win all four of their remaining games with huge margins.

However, winning four out of four is not the only way Pakistan can make it to the next round.

Here are three scenarios how Pakistan can make it into the semis with three wins out of four in their next four matches.

• Scenario 6

If England lose all three of their remaining matches against Australia, India and New Zealand they will remain on eight points.

In this situation, Pakistan with three wins out of four will go to nine points.

However, Sri Lanka in this situation needs to lose two of their three games against South Africa, West Indies and India, moving from six to eight points.

Bangladesh, on the other hand, lose two of their three matches against Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, taking them from five points to seven.

The West Indies lose one of their three matches against India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, taking them from three to seven points.

• Scenario 7

Keeping in mind we have three wins out of four matches with nine points, England lose all three of their remaining matches against Australia, India and New Zealand, they will remain on eight points.

Sri Lanka in this situation needs to lose two out of three games against South Africa, West Indies and India, moving them from six to eight points.

Bangladesh lose one out of thee matches against Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, moving from five to nine matches.

However, in this situation, West Indies do not any of their next three matches against India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and move from three to nine points.

Now in this situation, Bangladesh, West Indies and Pakistan will be tied on nine points, with only one team moving into the next round. The only way Pakistan will move into the next round by winning their three games by huge rounds.

• Scenario 8

In this situation, Pakistan has nine points after winning three of their four games.

Sri Lanka in this situation loses two of their next three matches against South Africa, West Indies and India, moving from six to eight points.

Bangladesh needs to lose one match out of their three against Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, moving from five to nine points.

However, in this situation, West Indies do not any of their next three matches against India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and move from three to nine points.

India ends up losing all of their next four games against West Indies, England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and remain on nine points.

This will mean Bangladesh, India, West Indies and Pakistan will be tied on nine points.

Only one of the four teams will go through based on NRR. For Pakistan to make it to the next round in this scenario, they would need to win their three games by huge margins.

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Originally published on Geo.tv

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